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The share of developing countries in the global economy is slowly growing, causing the role of traditional economic leaders to contract.
According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), developing countries such as China, India and Brazil have been increasing their share of total global gross domestic product (GDP), even when taking into account the effects of the global financial crisis. At the same time, traditional leaders such as the US have been losing their share of the global economic pie, signifying a shift in the economic status quo from developed countries to emerging markets.
The US’s share of the global economy was 22.96 percent in 1985, peaking at 23.47 percent in 2000. Although the US still makes up the largest share of global GDP, this share is decreasing: It was estimated to be 20.02 percent in 2009 and is projected to fall to 19.59 percent this year, demonstrating the shift in economic power toward emerging markets, a shift made more acute by the financial collapse that originated in the US, the likes of which hadn’t been seen since the Great Depression.
European nations also haven’t been faring well, with Germany, England, France, Italy and Spain also losing a significant share of global GDP. Germany, which was the world’s biggest exporter until China recently overtook it, made up 5.61 percent of global GDP in 1995, but its share dropped to 4.47 percent in 2005, contracted further to 4.08 percent in 2009, according to preliminary figures, and is predicted to fall again this year to 3.95 percent. England, the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, also saw its share drop from 3.79 percent in 1985 to 3.1 percent in 2009.
Emerging markets, however, are flexing their economic muscle and increasing their role in the global economy. India, whose share of global GDP was 2.47 percent in 1985, went a long way, more than doubling its share by 2009 to hit 4.94 percent. China, now the world’s largest exporter, has continued to increase its share of global GDP despite the economic crisis. Comprising only 2.89 percent of global GDP in 1985, it is estimated to have hit a whopping 12.05 percent in 2009 and is predicted to reach 12.72 percent this year.
Turkey, which showed great performance during most of the decade, still stayed around 1 percent of global GDP. This share increased from 1.02 percent in 1985 to 1.33 percent in 2005. During the crisis year of 2009, Turkey’s share is estimated to have hit 1.34 percent and is predicted to grow slightly this year to 1.35 percent.
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